THE STATE weather bureau raised the El Niño alert after assessing a 79% possibility that the extended dry season would develop from June to August 2026, according to the advisory released on Wednesday, April 22.
Based on the PAGASA statement, an El Niño Alert is issued when conditions are favorable and a forecast probability of 70% or more within the next 2 to 3 months.
The weather bureau said El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Neutral is prevailing over the Tropical Pacific. However, most climate models with expert judgements suggest 79% chance of El Niño emerging in June-July-August 2026 season and is likely to persist until early 2027.
“El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO and is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Philippine Sea and warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP),” it said.
During an El Niño event, the possibility of drier-than-usual conditions is increased, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country.
However, the weather bureau affirmed, above-normal rainfall conditions may also be experienced over the western section of the country during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season.
PAGASA continues to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon.
Meanwhile, the weather bureau said moderate to strong El Niño conditions are possible during the September–October–November season.
“All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impacts of developing El Niño,” it stressed.
