HOW DOES the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran affect the regional economy of Mindanao?
To answer this question, we need to revisit Mindanao’s position within the broader national economy and the country’s development history.
Since the administration of former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., Mindanao has been designated as the country’s agricultural export powerhouse. As a result, the region became the site of vast plantations producing high-value export crops such as pineapples, mangoes, abaca, coconuts, sugar, and various spices. While political leadership has changed since 1986, Mindanao’s role as a center of export-oriented agricultural production has largely remained unchanged.
However, this role must be understood within the broader shift in Philippine economic policy. From the 1950s to the 1960s, the country pursued import substitution industrialization (ISI). Beginning in the 1970s, this shifted toward export-oriented industrialization (EOI), which restructured the economy into two segments: traditional and non-traditional exporters.
Traditional exporters consist primarily of agricultural producers and commodity-based industries that dominated Philippine exports in earlier decades. In contrast, non-traditional exporters include manufacturers engaged in electronics, semiconductors, mining, and other forms of industrial production.
Between these two segments, traditional exporters have struggled to keep pace since the 1970s, largely because government policy has favored the expansion of non-traditional industries. This imbalance became especially evident in the 1990s, when many Mindanao-based food producers expressed strong opposition to the Philippines’ participation in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which later evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO). For these producers, trade liberalization was perceived not as an opportunity but as a threat to their survival.
More than two decades later, Mindanao’s agricultural sector is once again facing external pressures—this time stemming from the global economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
During the Senate PROTECT hearing on March 24, 2026, lawmakers noted that the conflict could affect not only fuel prices in the Philippines but also agricultural productivity. A key concern is the disruption of fertilizer supply chains, as a significant portion of global fertilizer trade passes through the heavily guarded Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in this critical chokepoint has direct implications for countries like the Philippines that rely on imported agricultural inputs.
For Mindanao-based food producers, this translates into two immediate challenges: higher fertilizer prices and potential supply constraints. These pressures threaten not only farm productivity but also the broader economic stability of the region, where agricultural exports remain a major source of employment and income. In turn, this may have implications for national food security and rural livelihoods.
Although recent reports indicate that Iran has allowed Philippine-bound vessels to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices have not declined as expected. A similar trend may apply to fertilizer prices and supply, suggesting that the economic effects of the conflict may persist in the near term.
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While the economy grapples with these external shocks, agricultural stakeholders in Mindanao must also identify opportunities for resilience and adaptation. In this regard, recent initiatives by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Philippines offer a promising pathway.
In partnership with the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Agrarian Reform (MAFAR), JICA has launched upskilling programs for coffee and cacao producers in the region. These programs aim to improve production consistency, enhance processing methods, and raise product quality through technical training led by experts from Hiroshima University.
The first cacao training session was conducted from March 27 to April 1, 2026, in Tupi, South Cotabato. The program brought together cooperative members from Maguindanao del Norte and Lanao del Sur for hands-on training in key aspects of cacao production, including fermentation, planting, and fertilization techniques.
Participants are also expected to undergo advanced chocolate-making training in Hiroshima, where they will acquire specialized skills that can be shared with their respective communities upon their return. The initiative forms part of a broader program known as “Chocolate for Peace,” which uses cacao production as a platform for peacebuilding, community empowerment, and market development in the Bangsamoro region.
While full economic normalization may take time due to disruptions in global energy and supply chains, initiatives such as JICA’s support for Mindanao’s coffee and cacao sectors play a critical role not only in promoting economic empowerment and peacebuilding but also in strengthening the region’s resilience against external shocks affecting the broader Philippine economy.
Brian U. Doce is a practitioner-scholar with a background in politics and international relations. He lectures at several universities in Metro Manila and has extensive experience in business–government relations, policy research and advocacy, and diplomacy. He may be reached at scholarbud@gmail.com.
