TAGUM CITY – The five consecutive days of Yellow Alert on the Mindanao Grid should serve as a warning to the national government and power regulatory agencies that the region’s power supply situation is tightening and requires urgent action to prevent a repeat of the power crisis Mindanao experienced more than a decade ago.
From August 10 to 14, 2026, the Mindanao Grid was placed under Yellow Alert on consecutive days, as its operating margin fell below the level required to meet the grid’s contingency reserve requirement. On August 10, the situation became more critical when the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) placed the Mindanao Grid under Red Alert for several hours, meaning available supply was insufficient to meet consumer demand and the grid’s regulating requirement.
Based on available Department of Energy (DOE) and NGCP records, Mindanao had no documented Red Alert from 2019 until August 10, 2026. The five consecutive days of Yellow Alert, coupled with the Red Alert on August 10, therefore represent a significant deterioration from the relatively stable supply conditions Mindanao experienced in the years following its power crisis in the 2010s.
The Davao Consumer Movement cannot help but ask: Is Mindanao once again heading toward a power crisis similar to what it experienced from 2013 to 2015? Could Mindanawons again face prolonged rotational brownouts if the region’s power requirements continue to grow faster than new generation capacity can be brought online?
The government, however, has long been aware of Mindanao’s projected power requirements.
In 2021, MinDA projected that Mindanao would need around 3,500 MW of additional capacity by 2030 as electricity demand continued to grow. The projection reflected an expected annual demand growth of about 7 percent.
In 2024, MinDA warned that Mindanao could face a power shortage within three to five years if new power producers did not enter the region. Around the same period, the DOE-Mindanao Field Office said existing supply would be adequate for only about three more years if generation capacity did not increase.
These warnings were followed by another important development this year.
In January 2026, MinDA and the DOE met to strengthen coordination on Mindanao’s future power supply, including the need to secure sufficient firm baseload capacity while accelerating renewable energy projects such as solar and battery energy storage systems. MinDA also identified the anticipated expansion of the mining sector and other energy-intensive industries as important drivers of future electricity demand.
Yet, despite these repeated warnings and projections, the development of additional generation capacity remains a concern.
The recent Yellow Alert episodes should not be dismissed as isolated incidents. They should instead serve as an early warning that Mindanao’s once-comfortable power reserves are being eroded by increasing demand and the unavailability or derating of generating plants.
Mindanao needs new generation capacity now — not only when the grid is already experiencing a shortage.
MinDA and the DOE, together with local government units and private-sector investors, should hasten efforts to develop the generation projects needed to keep pace with the region’s economic growth. The government must also recognize that power projects take several years to move from planning and permitting to construction and commercial operation.
Mindanawons cannot afford to wait until reserves have already become critically low before the government acts.
The urgency is even greater as Mindanao positions itself for continued economic expansion. The Department of Finance has expressed a positive outlook for the region’s economic prospects, but how can Mindanao sustain this growth if it cannot guarantee a stable and reliable power supply?
The lesson from the 2013-2015 power crisis should be clear: power supply must be secured before the shortage arrives, not after.
Ryan Amper
Consumer Advocate
Convenor, Davao Consumer Movement
0905-5634083
