MANILA — Aurora Energy Research announced the launch of its Philippines Nodal Market Forecast, the first bankable, nodal-level price forecast available to investors, lenders, developers, and traders active in the Philippines power market. This subscription service provides an independent market outlook to support investment decisions and project financing.
As the Philippines accelerates its energy transition through the Green Energy Auction Programme and targets 25 GW of renewable capacity over the next decade, market participants face growing uncertainty around transmission constraints, curtailment risk, and nodal price volatility.
Aurora’s new service addresses these challenges with nodal price forecasts to 2050 across more than 200 nodes in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao at monthly granularity. Underpinned by ORIGIN NODAL, Aurora’s proprietary power flow network model, the Forecast also delivers long-term curtailment forecasts by technology covering solar, wind and baseload and bi-annual updates to reflect evolving policy, capacity and demand fundamentals. In addition, bespoke scenario analysis and sensitivity modelling are available to subscribers through Aurora’s advisory team to support specific transaction or investment requirements.
Patrick Tan, Head of Wider Asia, APAC at Aurora Energy Research, said: “The Philippines is one of the most exciting power markets in APAC, with a renewables pipeline that requires billions of dollars of investment over the coming decade. Our forecasts have already supported the financial close of several major renewable energy transactions in the country. Recent examples include Alba Renewables’ Solar Valley project, Vena Group’s Opus Paoay Solar PV Plant, and Verdant Energy’s acquisition of PHESI.
“The Philippines Nodal Market Forecast extends this track record into the country’s nodal market environment, giving market participants the transparent, independent analysis they need to assess risk and finance projects with confidence.”
The Philippines Nodal Market Forecast is designed for a wide range of market participants, including project developers, energy traders, retail electricity suppliers, commercial banks, multilateral lenders, infrastructure debt funds, equity investors, infrastructure funds, off takers, corporate PPA buyers, policymakers, and regulators. As nodal pricing increases the complexity of investment decisions across the Philippines, the ability to model curtailment exposure, line rental costs, and debt sizing with precision is becoming a prerequisite for bankable transactions.
Joseph Nocos of Emerging Power Inc, said: “The Philippines power market is becoming increasingly complex under nodal pricing, and access to credible long-term market intelligence is becoming critical for investors, developers, and energy users alike. Aurora’s nodal forecasting capability represents an important step forward in helping market participants better understand regional price signals, transmission constraints, and investment risk.”
