THE STATE weather bureau projected that all provinces in the Davao Region could be in meteorological drought by the end of March 2027, as rainfall is forecast to stay below normal for the next six months.
Engr. Bema C. Tajones, Weather Specialist I of the Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division, presented the projection during the 11th DCCCII General Membership Meeting for 2026 on Friday, Nov. 13, at Grand Men Seng Hotel.
Rainfall forecast
For November, the region is generally expected to receive below-normal to near-normal rainfall.
Tajones said “below normal” means 41 to 80% of normal rainfall, so an area that usually gets 100 millimeters would receive only 40 to 80 millimeters.
Davao City and Davao del Norte are forecast to have near-normal rainfall (80 to 120% of normal), but she said there is still up to a 55% probability that both areas will end up below normal.
Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for December, with up to a 75% probability of “way below normal” conditions. January is expected to remain below normal.
Rainfall is projected to drop to way below normal in February 2027, with no probability of an increase, and way below normal conditions are expected to persist in March, with patches of below-normal rainfall in parts of Davao City.
In April, the affected area narrows slightly, but way below normal rainfall is still forecast across the region.
Dry condition, dry spell, drought
PAGASA said its dry condition, dry spell, and drought outlook are based only on rainfall, not on the effects on farms or land.
Tajones explained that dry conditions are when there are two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, while a dry spell is three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of way below-normal rainfall.
Meanwhile, drought is three consecutive months of way below-normal rainfall, or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.
By the end of November 2026, Davao del Sur and Davao Occidental may experience a dry spell, while Davao Oriental may be under dry conditions.
By the end of December, Davao del Sur and Davao Occidental may reach drought, Davao Oriental may be in a dry spell, and Davao de Oro may be under dry conditions.
By the end of January 2027, Davao del Sur and Davao Occidental are projected to remain in drought. Davao de Oro and Davao Oriental may be in a dry spell, and Davao City and Davao del Norte may be under dry conditions.
By the end of February, Davao del Sur, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental may be in drought, while Davao City, Davao de Oro, and Davao del Norte may be in a dry spell.
By the end of March, all provinces in the region, including Davao City, are forecast to be in drought, which is expected to continue through the end of April.
Tajones urged communities to “monitor, prepare, and adapt” and encouraged the use of water-efficient technologies and energy-efficient equipment.
The official advised adjusting work schedules to limit workers’ exposure to heat, especially between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., when temperatures peak.
PAGASA also issues a daily heat index and heat index forecasts on its website, which can help in planning activities.
